At present,exclusive information there are almost two weeks before the US election. On Friday, the last presidential debate is about to be held. The Trump team can be said that the firepower has been fully opened, which has made all the best solutions in key areas.And Trump himself has already become a flying man in the air and speaks in a new city every day.
If you observe every recent rally, you will find that almost all his speeches are held at the airport, and the US Presidential Air Force Air Force No. 1 is behind him.As soon as I opened the door of Sichuan, I started interacting with the supporters. As soon as the speech was over, they immediately went to the new city ... It can be done for a month, and this 70 -year -old man is really very energetic.
Every time you look at Trump's speech, you will have the illusion of Trump's steady win. How determined and confident this orange -yellow man looks.Every time it comes to polls, Trump said that this is the same as 2016.But under such a appearance, the Trump team is facing the edge of collapse.
According to the New York Times, Trump's chief of staff Mark Meadows has been prepared to resign after the election.And Trump's chief commander, Bill Stepien, also expressed that Trump's victory is very narrow.
Many middle -level members in his team are already considering changing their jobs and voting resumes for Congress Mountain and other institutions.The New York Times also said that it would not know if work in the Trump team would affect their future.
Trump himself made some mistakes in this campaign.The email door incident of Biden's son last week (the email exposure of the Biden's young son's computer shows that he and Ukraine are suspected of corruption, clicking this review) did not achieve the effect of the Trump team.Except for Sichuan Fan, almost no one believes the authenticity of the email door incident.
According to US media reports, when the Trump team wanted to find the media to expose Biden's son, it was found that no media was willing to take over.Finally, after the old right -wing newspaper New York Post took over, I was also doubtful about the entire incident.Even the reporters who wrote the exposure news were unwilling to sign, and it was clearly that this was the editor -in -chief forced him to write.
As for the exposure itself, the media in the United States have criticized the criticism, and the various timelines are not right, and the character behavior is not logical.The most important thing is that all information comes from the disclosure of the Trump team.The exposure of such obvious stakeholders' related parties has significantly reduced the credibility.
Now, the mail door is no longer a situation where the water is not large, but it may cause anti -effects: US law enforcement agencies such as FBI have begun to investigate the mail door, and show that the source of information is likely to be a foreign hacker (Russia) invaded Biden's son.The computer was subsequently provided to the Trump team.
If this allegations are true, then Trump is sitting in cooperation with Russian spy to ensure his choice.This is a proper crime of rebellion.In the United States, the crime of rebellion is the only crime of death penalty.
Recently, Trump's speech several times mentioned what would happen in case he was defeated.In one of the lectures, he said:
"I guess I will feel bad, I think I will leave this country, I don’t know."After a short silence, he recovered his previous self -confidence again"Of course, I can't lose it."
So what are the supporters of Trump and Biden?
To sum up,It is on the big face to be optimistic about Biden, and Trump still has the possibility of victory.
According to the polls made on the BBC website, that is, the results of the collection of most polls calculated a national poll data Biden now led Trump's 10%point.In the US elections, led by 10%is already a victory.
Of course, everyone should also know that the US election is not simple to win. The votes obtained more than the opponent cannot guarantee that the election wins.The votes obtained by Hillary in 2016 were more than Sichuan, but they finally lost the election.
The rules of the US presidential election are different from most countries, and adopt the electoral system.The president was determined by 538 elections.The electoor was divided into 50 states in the United States according to the number of people. For example, there are 29 votes in New York and 55 votes in California.On the day of the election, if the Democratic Party wins in New York, no matter how tight the last votes are bite, all 29 elections will support the Democratic Party.
Such a peculiar election system has caused such a result: in those states that are very inclined to a certain party, such as California of the Democratic Party, the attitude of a few voters supporting another party is completely meaningless.Because the Democratic Party has won California with a 51%faint advantage of 51%, 55 votes in California belong to them.
Under such a system in the United States, only those states that are unpredictable in the public attitude can determine the results of the election. Both sides are desperately gathered in these areas. After all, as long as you win 1%of the other party, you can eat all the way to eat all of all.Voting.The most critical areas are: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, etc.
Judging from the current polls, almost all of these critical areas of polls are biased towards Biden (except Ohio).If Trump wants to win, not only needs to win all the key areas above, but he also needs to win in some areas that are now very biased towards Biden such as Arizona and Nevada.It is conceivable that if Trump wins, he estimates that he will win with a 1%advantage in nearly 10 states, and he will be frightened.
For Biden, he can even lose all the above -mentioned areas. As long as he keeps all the remaining basic disks, he can ensure winning.
At present, tens of millions of people have conducted early voting in the United States. After receiving the selection, these people showed that 68%of them voted to Biden, while only 29%supported Trump.Considering that Biden has been calling on everyone to vote in advance to miss the peak of the vote day, this result is not surprising.
Seeing this, some friends may ask,Everyone said that before the 2016 election, and Trump unexpectedly won Hillary.Does this mean that the polls before the election are garbage.
First of all, the results of prediction of polls are essentially an estimated probability.Most media won the probability of winning Hillary 70%-80%of Hillary in 2016, but Trump also had a possibility of winning about 20%. Trump's victory was not a small probability event.
Secondly, it is the progress of poll technology.After the polls and the election were too large in 2016, the poll company was also self -reflection and correction.At that time, everyone pointed out many issues of polls, such as: 1. The respondents may not be willing to admit that they are Sichuan powder because of shyness.2. The interviewee may say that he will vote but not vote in the end.After 2016, the polls have updated their own data processing methods to closer to the real results.
Finally, from the current poll data, Biden's advantage over Trump is greater than four years ago.According to data from the New York Times, even if the data was as biased as in 2016, after correction, Biden would still win ...
Of course, it is not impossible for Trump to win, but it takes several good luck to make him win.
Looking at the New York Times report on Trump's team, you will feel that this is like Hitler in 1945.No team members are willing to make suggestions for Trump.The first priority of everyone is to fully obey Trump, let him be happy, let him be elected according to his own ideas, and then pray that there will be a miracle.But the consequence of Trump's free performance is uncertainty.
On the 18th, in a rally, Trump also joked that his younger son Baron was infected with the virus, saying that he healed after 15 seconds."He was infected with me at all. He was very strong. The child's immunity was much stronger than us. I asked Baron, how did the disease feel, (he said) I don't know."
How uncomfortable this kind of self -proclaiming is for those who have suffered new crowns.
Trump seems to have always believed that as long as he copys the means of 2016, he can copy the success of 2016.According to CNN, Trump has begun superstition.He said that he missed the landline in the 2016 election and felt that the plane gave himself good luck.When he went to Las Vegas to build a momentum, he lived in a hotel he lived in 2016.
Trump will take a plane to a very remote town, because he prayed there four years ago ...
But the United States in 2020 is no longer in 2016.The successful and dare to say a successful president who has become a madness and a boring president who has killed more than 200,000 people.
Before November 3, he will continue to chase his victory clumsy.