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Building decoration industry tracking weekly report: the business activity index of the construction industry is expanding, and the construction physical quantity is expected to land.

 (The following contents are excerpted from the original attachment of soochow securities's "Building Decoration Industry Tracking Weekly: Business Activity Index of Construction Industry Boom Expansion, Expecting Construction Physical Quantity Landing" research report)
This week (November 25, 2023–December 1, 2023, the same below): The architectural decoration sector (SW) rose and fell by -0.93% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Wonder All-A Index rose and fell by -1.56% and -0.57% respectively, and the excess returns were 0.63% and-0.37% respectively.
行业重要政策、事件变化、数据跟踪点评:(1)住房城乡建设部印发意见全面推进城市综合交通体系建设:《指导意见》提出要有序推进城市快速干线交通系统建设,Express information积极实施城市生活性集散交通系统建设,加快开展城市绿色慢行交通系统建设;提出实施城市交通基础设施智能化改造,推动“多杆合一、多箱合一”,建设集成多种设备及功能的智慧杆柱,推进智慧城市基础设施与智能网联汽车协同发展。(2)习近平主持召开深入推进长三角一体化发展座谈会:习近平强调:长三角区域要加强科技创新和产业创新跨区域协同;要加快完善一体化发展体制机制,Best RepsExpress information要加强各类交通网络基础设施标准跨区域衔接,提升基础设施互联互通水平。要加快长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区建设,加强规划、土地、项目建设的跨区域协同和有机衔接。(3)央行发布2023年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告:货币政策主基调维持,“稳健的货币政策要精准有力,Bst Sneaker更加注重做好跨周期和逆周期调节”,但新增“加强货币供应总量和结构双重调节”,提出“科学看待信贷总量和信贷结构的变化”,“统筹衔接好年末年初信贷工作,适度平滑信贷波动”,反映政策重心或将更加看重结构、节奏均衡。(4)The National Bureau of Statistics released PMI data: the business activity index of the construction industry was 55.0%, which was 1.5 percentage points higher than that in October, and rose to a higher boom zone, reflecting that the construction progress was accelerated or benefited from the gradual implementation of the previous financial efforts. From the market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 62.6%, which continues to rise in the high boom zone.
Zhou's point of view: (1) The year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment declined in October, and the drag of real estate investment remained. Before that, the central government issued 1 trillion yuan of special national debt in 2023 for specific disaster reduction and prevention construction, and all the additional national debt was arranged to local governments through transfer payment. While strengthening infrastructure construction and stimulating infrastructure investment, the financial pressure and debt risk of local governments are expected to be further alleviated; In November, the index of construction business activity rebounded month-on-month, and the expected index of construction business activity continued to rise. It is expected that the physical quantity can be expected to land. The previous Central Financial Work Conference clearly proposed to speed up the construction of "three major projects" such as affordable housing, and looked forward to the follow-up fiscal policy and the acceleration of physical quantity. We suggest paying attention to the opportunity of continuous valuation repair of leading infrastructure enterprises with historically low valuations and stable performance, and recommend China Jiaojian, China Construction, China Power Construction, China Railway Construction and China Railway.
(2) The direction of "the belt and road initiative": Report to the 20th CPC National Congress proposed to build a "the belt and road initiative" with high quality, which will further deepen the interconnection of infrastructure such as transportation, energy and network, and carry out regional cooperation in a wider scope, at a higher level and at a deeper level, opening up more space for central state-owned enterprises to participate in the market along the belt and road initiative; Previously, the third the belt and road initiative Summit Forum was successfully held. At the meeting, eight actions of China to support the high-quality construction of the the belt and road initiative were announced. The the belt and road initiative will enter a new stage of high-quality development, and infrastructure cooperation is an important form. The meeting has achieved fruitful results in the infrastructure field. China will co-ordinate the promotion of landmark projects and "small but beautiful" livelihood projects. It is expected that more cooperation and policy support will be introduced in the future, and overseas engineering business will benefit. Overseas orders of several international engineering companies increased rapidly in the first half of the year, and the follow-up is expected to be gradually realized at the performance level. It is recommended to pay attention to the international engineering sector, and individual stocks recommend Sinoma International. It is recommended to pay attention to China National Engineering International, North International and Sinosteel International.
(3) There are bright spots in the demand structure, and investment opportunities under the incremental development of new business: the construction of water conservancy infrastructure is expected to accelerate, and it is recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Hydropower and Anhui Construction Engineering; With the promotion of policies such as "double carbon strategy" and "green energy-saving building", the infrastructure segments related to prefabricated buildings, energy saving and carbon reduction, and new energy are highly prosperous, and enterprises with relevant transformation layouts are expected to benefit. It is suggested to pay attention to Honglu steel structure in the direction of prefabricated buildings.
Risk warning: the credit risk of real estate is out of control, the policy determination exceeds expectations, and the progress of state-owned enterprise reform is lower than expected.